Session: Hybrid System & Substation

Paper Number: 165304

165304 - Towards Reliability Risk Analysis of Offshore Wind Farm Substations for Insurance Applications 

Abstract: 

Insurance is essential for offshore wind farms to be constructed and operated. By 2030, the combined targets and goals of the European governments promise to install up to 160 GW of wind production, increasing insurers' exposure to risks in offshore substations and export cables. Over the last 10 years, most insurance losses in the offshore wind sector have been linked to issues with the offshore export transmission system, including export cables and offshore substations. These vital assets enable electricity transmitted by array cables from offshore wind turbines to be boosted to higher voltage levels and then sent to the onshore power grid.

Lately, there has been a focus on better understanding the reliability of offshore wind export cables, but there is limited understanding of the inherent reliability and associated insurance risks around offshore substations. These include environmental hazards, construction challenges, electrical malfunctions, and structural and mechanical failures. As a result, construction delays and operational disruptions could occur, leading to large financial losses and resulting insurance claims.

This paper presents a framework for reliability risk analysis of offshore substations to provide a rigorous approach to risk management for offshore substations for insurance applications.

The study starts with a comprehensive evaluation of the literature, identifying typical failure modes, mechanisms and related risks. These findings are then used to develop a semi-quantitative risk assessment technique by integrating specialist judgment with a risk-ranking methodology. The framework's application will be illustrated using hypothetical but realistic insurance loss scenarios where insurance risk is evaluated by combining qualitative descriptions with numerical evaluations for severity and probability.

The suggested methodology offers insightful information on the offshore substation risk environment, enhances offshore substation resilience, and informs offshore wind insurance providers and asset owners when evaluating the insurability of offshore wind assets.

Presenting Author: Muhammad Ahmad University of Exeter

Presenting Author Biography: Muhammad Ahmad holds a bachelor’s degree in computer science, bringing expertise in programming languages such as Python, Java, and JavaScript. He further advanced his skills with a master’s degree in data science, where he developed multiple machine learning and data analysis projects. Now he is in the 2nd year of his PhD journey at the University of Exeter, UK, Muhammad is exploring innovative approaches to Risk Management in Offshore Wind Energy. His diverse academic and technical background underpins his commitment to advancing sustainable energy solutions through rigorous research.

Authors:

Muhammad Ahmad University of Exeter
Philipp R. Thies University of Exeter
Mario Recker University of Exeter
Tariq Dawood Aviva
Nick Nardiello Aviva